How to Read a GTA Market Report Without Being Misled

Monthly board statistics get reported as a single headline number, usually average price, which is the least useful figure in the release.

Average price is distorted by mix

If more detached homes sold this month and fewer condos, the average rises even if no individual property gained a dollar. It measures what sold, not what things are worth.

Benchmark price is the honest one

The MLS® Home Price Index tracks a constant-quality composite, so it controls for mix. When benchmark and average diverge sharply, the mix changed — not the market.

Sales-to-new-listings ratio

Above roughly 60 percent is a seller's market, below 40 percent a buyer's market, in between balanced. This is the single best forward-looking indicator in the monthly release.

Months of inventory

Active listings divided by monthly sales. Under two months is tight; over four gives buyers real leverage. Track it for your specific property type and municipality, not the aggregate.

Why the aggregate misleads

The GTA is not one market. Condos in the downtown core and detached homes in Durham can move in opposite directions in the same month. Ask for the numbers for your property type in your municipality.

When someone quotes you a market direction, the useful follow-up is: benchmark or average, which property type, and which municipality. If they cannot answer all three, the number is decoration.